NEWS » Five hitters on whom the projection systems can’t seem to agree

."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Red Sox StoriesScheduleRosterStatsYahoo Red Sox NewsYahoo Red Sox Team PageYahoo Red Sox ReportYahoo Red Sox Depth ChartYahoo Red Sox TransactionsYahoo Red Sox PhotosOdds About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub 鉁昍ed Sox AnalysisLooking at some projection disagreementsFive hitters on whom the projection systems can’t seem to agree.EDTShareTweetShareShareLooking at some projection disagreementsJasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsThe Red Sox are right in the swing of spring training Robin Yount Jersey , as the starting rotation is starting to get set on Saturday and the everyday players are beginning to get into a bit of a rhythm at the plate. Of course, as much as we want to apply meaning to spring training performances, we know well enough by now that we can’t tell much. There are hints about what could be coming down the road if you know what to look for, but generally speaking we (myself included) probably overblow spring performance. It’s just so tempting!The smartest way to try and figure out what is going to happen in 2019 is honestly to just not even try. Baseball is going to surprise us every year. That’s just the way it work. If you really want to try and get a feel for who is going to do what in the upcoming season, though, projection systems are for you. As I and many others have said many times, no one is expecting these to be perfect. It’s just a guiding point based on carefully constructed algorithms by very smart people. Sometimes, the projection systems generally agree on what will happen in coming years, but there are times when the different systems have different ideas for how certain players will perform. So, stealing an idea from our sister site Pinstripe Alley, let’s take a quick look at a handful of hitters on whom three projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer and PECOTA) can’t agree.Dustin PedroiaZiPS OPS: .705Steamer OPS: .733PECOTA OPS: .769It’s not too much of a surprise that there would be a fair amount of disparity when trying to project Dustin Pedroia. The veteran second baseman and former AL MVP has played in only 108 games over the last two years, including only three in 2018. He’s coming off a major knee injury and entering his age-35 season at a position that does not traditionally age well. That’s a lot of question marks! Even the most optimistic projection isn’t really expecting Pedroia to get back to his old levels, as a .769 OPS would be the third lowest of his career. It’s probably safest to keep expectations low and hold out for a pleasant surprise if he does reach that PECOTA level.Rafael DeversZiPS OPS: .800Steamer OPS: .805PECOTA OPS: .763Here we don’t have major disagreement between all three of the systems http://www.brewersfanproshop.com/authentic-orlando-arcia-jersey , with ZiPS and Steamer projecting essentially the same OPS from Boston’s young third baseman in 2019. However, PECOTA doesn’t see the same kind of breakout from Devers, instead seeing a modest 32-point improvement compared to 2018. Devers is a very popular breakout pick in 2019, and I would certainly take the over on PECOTA’s projection here. It’s worth noting, though, that Baseball Prospectus’ system is generally more conservative than other systems. That can be frustrating, but it’s a good reminder that not every popular breakout pick is actually going to work out. That said, Devers is totally going to work out.Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsSteve PearceZiPS OPS: .779Steamer OPS: .815PECOTA OPS: .767A lot of the projection for Pearce would, I’d assume, have to do with what kind of role he’s going to play in 2019. The veteran first baseman is traditionally a platoon bat who mashes lefties, and if the vast majority of his at bats in the coming year are with a southpaw on the mound, I’ll take the over on possibly all of these projections. However, I think it’s likely he takes a good chunk of at bats against righties as well, and while he’s just fine against them it would still bring down his overall projection. The difficult thing for projection systems here is that Pearce is going to turn 36 shortly after the regular season begins and he’s coming off the second best season of his career. Generally http://www.brewersfanproshop.com/authentic-orlando-arcia-jersey , you can’t expect that to keep up at his age, but watching him last year and knowing his playing time will be managed well I think he has a better chance than an algorithm would give him.Mitch MorelandZiPS OPS: .733Steamer OPS: .767PECOTA OPS: .746I was a little surprised that there wasn’t a more uniform opinion from the computers on what Moreland would do in the coming year. While he can be very inconsistent month-to-month, running hot and cold throughout the year, his end-of-season production is roughly the same every year. His career OPS is .757 and he’s been within 12 points of that mark in each of his two years with Boston. I’ll put my money on another year right around the league-average for the Red Sox left-handed first baseman, which would likely put him right around the midpoint between Steamer and PECOTA.Eduardo NzZiPS OPS: .717Steamer OPS: .743PECOTA OPS: .727Here is it worth noting that projection systems don’t really know about injury, but only know of the affects of the injury on the statsheet. That’s not to say Eduardo Nez recovering from injury is the only reason he struggled in 2018, but I think it’s fair to posit it was at least a factor. It’s also worth mentioning that, prior to 2018, he had three straight seasons with an OPS of at least .758. Even the most optimistic projection is not confident he can get back to that level. I’m not sure he’ll get all the way back there either, but I think I’ll take Steamer’s projection here over the others. CHICAGO (AP) — Closer Brandon Morrow likely will miss the start of the season for the Chicago Cubs following arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow last month.Chicago president of baseball operations Theo Epstein revealed Thursday that Morrow’s operation took place on Nov. 6. The Cubs waited to make an announcement because Morrow’s recovery will impact how they fill out the bullpen.“That’s why we weren’t broadcasting it,” a smiling Epstein said. “We’ll have to set things up a little bit differently the first few weeks of the season. And it kind of underscores the need for depth and late-game options early in the year. I think for him, it will be a positive. It will completely address the issues that were bothering him last year. … It can really help him be strong late in the season as well.”Chicago also hired Tommy Hottovy as pitching coach to replace the departed Jim Hickey.Morrow led Chicago with 22 saves and had a 1.47 ERA in 35 games after signing a $21 million, two-year contract as a free agent. His final appearance was on July 15, with the Cubs ultimately shutting him down because of a bone bruise in his right elbow.Epstein said Morrow still felt discomfort Christian Yelich Jersey , leading to the decision for surgery. Morrow is expected to start throwing in early February. Epstein said the surgery was similar to the procedure Yu Darvish had on his right elbow in September.Darvish “looks strong, looks healthy” and is “exactly where he should be in his progression,” according to Epstein. The Cubs expect Darvish to start throwing in a few weeks, another big step after a disappointing first season in Chicago. Darvish went 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in eight starts after signing a $126 million, six-year contract.Epstein said Kris Bryant is “progressing without limitations” after making two trips to the disabled list because of inflammation in his left shoulder, and Javier Baez will start next season at shortstop while Addison Russell continues to serve a 40-game domestic violence suspension.About that suspension, Epstein said “it’s appropriate” for fans to “hold us accountable for our words and to make sure that those translate into actions.”“I can just tell you that we are certainly intent on it,” he said, citing the Cubs’ increased training and work in the community.As for Hottovy, he joined the organization in 2015 as a major league scouting coordinator and has spent the past four seasons assisting pitchers and formulating game plans with the coaching staff. He made a combined 17 relief appearances with Boston in 2011 and 2012.Chicago ranked third in the majors last season with a 3.65 team ERA. The Cubs went 95-68 and lost to Colorado in the NL wild-card game.Hickey left after one season. Hitting coach Chili Davis was fired after one season and replaced by Anthony Iapoce.Chicago hired Terrmel Sledge as assistant hitting coach on Thursday after he spent the past two seasons working in the Dodgers’ organization. The Cubs expanded Mike Borzello’s duties, making him associate pitching coach in addition to catching and strategy coach.And they added former major league outfielder Chris Denorfia to manager Joe Maddon’s staff. Denorfia joined the front office a year ago as a special assistant to the president and general manager.