Neo Workxx » details fantasy points per target on targets of at leas

With the NFL season finally here, we have individual teams previews at ESPN Chalk for all 32 teams. I give my overall assessment of each teams strengths and weaknesses heading into the season, including my take on how each team will perform against the spread and if they are a good over/under play. I also give my take on each teams future-book odds, including Super Bowl futures and odds to win the division or conference, if I think thats a better bet. Plus, I give my take on each teams over/under season win total.Were starting with all 16 teams in the NFC.Odds are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday, Sept. 5.?FPI Projection is the number of wins projected by ESPNs Football Power Index.?MLE is the Money-Line Estimate using the CG Technology Week 1-16 lines and converting them to a money line and their chance of winning each game, then adding those up to get a win total to compare to the betting number W/L/T is the record by again going through each teams Week 1-16 lines at the CG Technology books and giving a win for each game favored and a loss for each game as an underdog?(Note: each Week 17 game is set as a pick-em. Also, CG Technology closed these lines at the start of the preseason, so Ive made adjustments for?major injuries.)NFC: East | West | North | SouthAFC betting previews | NFC | Super Bowl betsNFC EastNew York Giants Super Bowl odds: 18-1 (opened 40-1) Over/Under win total: 8.5 (Over EVEN/Under -120)FPI Projection: 8.3 |?MLE: 7.9 |?W/L/T: 8-7-1Overview: One of the fallouts of Tony Romos injury is that the Giants are now the 8-5 favorite to win the NFC East despite having an over/under season win total of eight (same as the Cowboys, but with slightly more juice on the over). The Giants were a disappointing 6-10 last season but at least were profitable (barely) at 8-7-1 against the spread.Everyone knows about Odell Beckham Jr.s extraordinary pass-catching abilities Yeezy Boost Australia Online . Already owning gold from competition in Vancouver in 2010, Loch posted a combined four-run time of 3:27.526. That included a track-record third run of 51. Yeezy Shoes Australia Release .S. Open champion Justin Rose birdied the first hole with a blind shot he hit to a foot of the pin, and he stayed in front Tuesday until he completed a 4-under 67 for a two-shot lead over Jason Dufner in PGA Grand Slam of Golf. http://www.wholesaleyeezyaustralia.com/ . A statement from the worlds top-ranked player says all checks "were satisfactory and showed positive evolution" regarding the injury, which contributed to his loss to Stanislas Wawrinka in the final in Melbourne. Cheap Wholesale Yeezy . Mickelson barely made the cut but had the best round of the day with nine birdies and an eagle coupled with two bogeys to sit two shots behind leader Craig Lee of Scotland. Lee shot a 69 for a 12-under 204 total. "I just love the fact I am in contention and have an opportunity in my first tournament of the year here in Abu Dhabi," Mickelson said. Buy Yeezy Boost Wholesale . Aside from the trilogy main event title fight, there are a number of intriguing matchups in the heavyweight, welterweight and lightweight divisions. Down big to the Saints in the Superdome midway into the third quarter of Week 16 last December, the Jacksonville Jaguars Blake Bortles dropped back from a shotgun stance on first and 20 and planted his right foot on the two-yard line. Bortles, who led the NFL in passes traveling at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage last season, threw an in-stride strike to Allen Robinson at the 39-yard line. The result was a 90-yard score -- good for the longest reception of the entire NFL season.While the Jags would lose the game by 11 points, the play had a seismic effect on the fantasy football landscape. Using ESPN standard scoring, Robinsons haul netted 15 fantasy points. To put this single-play bounty in perspective, the Steelers Antonio Brown averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game to lead the wide receiver position last season. Innumerable fantasy titles were decided in those 10 seconds of game play.The big play is a highly coveted outcome in fantasy football. In a league that continues to trend pass-happy, we often look to the receiver position for such slate-shifting performances. The goal of this piece is to get a better idea of which NFL offenses have consistently and prolifically pushed the ball deep downfield; and subsequently which players we suspect should have meaningful vertical roles for their respective offenses in 2016. There is natural variance in big-play production in the NFL, but lets attempt to identify some potential indicators for unearthing such production.As my colleague Mike Clay has deduced, YAC (yards after the catch) and even yards per reception havent proved particularly predictive or consistent for projecting yardage production. With a specific eye on big-play mavens at the position -- given that average depth of target has proved somewhat predictive in projecting receiving performance -- weve employed a study of relative air yards per target at the wide receiver position. Air yards are simply the yards traveled in the air from the point of release to the intended receiver.To add some clarity to this concept of relative air yards -- or RELAY, to make it sound cooler -- weve subtracted the teams average air yards per target to receivers from the average air yards per target for specific receivers who had at least 30 targets in 2015. For example, the Miami Dolphins receivers averaged 10.4 air yards per target last season, while rookie DeVante Parker averaged 14.3 air yards per target, netting him a RELAY rate of 3.9 yards -- the sixth-highest clip of the 2015 season. Below, youll find the top 30 performers in RELAY from last season.Were not purporting RELAY to be revolutionary; rather, it simply reveals a?players net valuable vertical targets relative to their positional peers. Regarding notable takeaways from this index, its telling to see both Michael Floyd and John Brown on the list, given Carson Palmer averaged 6.13 throws per game of at least 10 yards past the line of the scrimmage last season -- the fifth-highest rate of such attempts over the past three seasons. In fact, Palmer is second only to Andrew Luck in throws per game of at least 10 yards past the sticks over the previous two seasons. Im particularly high on Brown and believe he can become a top-15 fantasy producer at the position this season, but I also think there is room for profit with Floyd as well, given coach Bruce Arians propensity for having Palmer persistently push the ball vertically.The Cardinals?Floyd rates second in average air yards per target (16.6), behind only the San Diego Chargers Malcom Floyd over the past two seasons (18.3). With the Bolts Floyd having retired, Travis Benjamin is set to assume this valuable vertical role in San Diego. Benjamin was 28th in total standard fantasy points and 35th per game at the position, while playinng with a blend of sub-optimal passing partners in Cleveland last season; hes currently going 50th on average at the position in early ADP results.ddddddddddddespite being limited to 13 games last season, Buffalos Sammy Watkins led all receivers by 16 percent ?in fantasy points on throws at least 10 yards past the line of the scrimmage. This big-play maven was fueled in part by Tyrod Taylor?averaging 5.2 throws of such a distance per game last season, the sixth-highest rate over the past two seasons (minimum 10 games). While injury concerns continue to present real risk for shares of Watkins, hes arguably already the leagues most dangerous deep threat at just 23 years old.Seattles Tyler Lockett is gaining steam this summer as a breakout candidate among pundits and fantasy investors. Helping to buoy the burgeoning hype, the speedster -- who ranked in the 87th percentile in the 40-yard dash among positional draft prospects as a close physical comparable to Arizonas Brown, per Mockdraftable -- ranked 22nd in RELAY and ninth in fantasy points per target on throws of at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage last season. Even if the Seattle passing game never becomes a volume-driven attack, the inherent verticality of Locketts role remains intriguing.As for a cheaper sophomore breakout candidate, its worth noting the Titans Dorial Green-Beckham was the leading vertical target on a Titans offense that averaged 12.2 air yards per attempt to its receivers, the sixth-highest rate in the league last year. Even if you dont believe in DGBs season-long value given his still-raw skill set, well likely witness some slate-shifting hookups with Marcus Mariota this fall for DFS purposes. Of the discounted veteran tier, we should remember the 49ers Torrey Smith opened his career with four consecutive top-24 fantasy finishes at the position in Baltimore and is due for a spike in targets in Chip Kellys snap-happy scheme.To follow up on Parker, the Fins Ryan Tannehill attempted 88 passes that traveled at least 10 yards past the line last season, fifth most in the league. Last season, Parker was tied for 17th in fantasy points per game at the position from Week 12, when he began receiving heavy snap exposure. With his rich aforementioned RELAY rate in place, shares of Parker around his current ADP (30th at the position) could prove profitable.We find Washingtons DeSean Jackson going just ahead of Parker in drafts so far, on average, as the renowned big-play burner dominated on deep balls even during last seasons?injury-plagued campaign. The chart below details fantasy points per target on targets of at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, with Jackson leading the pack after already finishing third in the league in RELAY. There will surely be some lean, low-reception outings for Jackson, but for investors willing to accept the variance of his production pattern at a draft price that seems to bake in these inherent risks, some big Sundays are still part of the portfolio.The Colts Luck has averaged the most deep attempts (10 yards past scrimmage) per game over the past two seasons. With vertical targets surely on tap for both T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief, big plays should again prove common for the Colts in 2016. Even second-year sleeper Phillip Dorsett could flash as a vertical weapon worthy of deep-league and DFS interest.Its also interesting to see Tampas Jameis Winston appear on this vertical passing index, as Mike Evans is due for a healthy correction in touchdown and big-play production heading into his third campaign. Below, youll find the leading signal-callers in passes of at least 10 yards past the sticks since 2014. ' ' '