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The strangest thing about Bud Seligs decision to determine home-field advantage in the World Series on the outcome of the All-Star Game was how backward the connection was. The World Series comprises the seven most important games of the baseball season. The All-Star Game, judging by how its rosters are constructed and its play managed, is the least important. Short of granting home field to the winner of spring training split-squad games, or a pregame cow-milking contest, itd be hard to envision a sillier example of a tail wagging the dog.Before Seligs decision, it was determined by random chance -- more recently, an even/odd year alternation, and before that, a literal coin flip. Given the opportunity to overrule this, Selig chose an almost identical philosophy -- that home field is a mostly meaningless advantage that need not be earned, only inherited. The only explanation? That home-field advantage in the World Series doesnt actually matter.Thats the most generous justification of Seligs scheme, which will be unwound by baseballs new collective bargaining agreement. Its actually a rational position, with a sound foundation and some historical evidence backing it. A smart person could justifiably believe this position.Its also wrong, in a way that has arbitrarily tilted October baseball for almost a century and that might more systematically tilt October baseball for (at least) the next five years.Its important to briefly lay the foundation for the Home Field Advantage Doesnt Really Matter position: The advantage does not, logically, matter unless the series goes seven games. If a home team wins in fewer than seven, it didnt need its advantage -- it won without its advantage. And most series dont go to seven games. Since 1925, when the current 2-3-2 format became permanent, 62 percent were over before the final if necessary game could be made necessary.That still leaves 38 percent that did, 35 Game 7s, and home-field advantage was certainly desirable in those. But home-field advantage in baseball is a relatively weak force, promising the home team only about a 54-46 edge. Generously, we might bump that to 55-45, to reflect a slightly higher historical edge in the high-stakes World Series games. Applying that small edge to all the seventh games since 1925, wed expect one or two series outcomes to flip ... in nearly a century. For Selig, thats one unjust outcome every 53 years, a pretty small price to pay for your pet project (or better television ratings). The fact that seventh games have, in fact, gone 18-17 in favor of the visitors confirms that baseballs decision not to seriously grapple with the right way to determine home-field advantage has left few victims.So this is the logical/historical argument: The advantage rarely matters -- and when it does, it barely makes a difference. But this argument gets it super wrong.The key to understanding the true advantage comes not in Game 7, when the fourth and advantage-deciding home game takes place, but in the first. Home-field advantage seems to be less about getting a fourth game at home and more about getting the 2s in the 2-3-2.Remember that home-field advantage overall is only about 54 percent to 46 percent? If we break the World Series down by game, the results have been radically different. Since 1925:? Game 1: 57-34 ? Game 2: 55-36 ? Game 3: 50-41 ? Game 4: 44-47 ? Game 5: 37-36 ? Game 6: 35-19 ? Game 7: 17-18Or, if we group them by legs of the trip:? Games 1-2: .615 home winning percentage ? Games 3-5: .514 home winning percentage ? Games 6-7: .584 home winning percentageWell, sure, the brain wants to say, the team that starts at home must be better. But throughout these 92 years (91 series), home field has been determined either randomly or by a factor (All-Star Game victor) that has virtually nothing to do with the teams involved. There is no reason to think that the teams that had home field in Game 1 were better, and yet they have been, as a group, a postseason powerhouse. Teams that have started at home were twice as likely to sweep the World Series (12 times to six times) and nearly twice as likely to win the series in five games (12 times to seven times) -- even though these victors ended up with the home field disadvantage, playing three games at road and only two at home. In fact, after five games, the team that has played fewer games at home has clinched or led the series 49 times to 42.Which gets us here: The team that starts at home has won 59 percent of the World Series since 1925. If we have identified a real effect, this advantage is far greater than any typical understanding of home field. And weve found a more or less randomly determined variable that has swung almost nine World Series in one direction.If we have identified a real effect.This is the hard part. Statistical flukes happen! But lets try to find a good reason to accept this as truth, recognizing that each of these hypotheses could justify a separate study on its own:1. Game 1 is just differentInevitably, the announcers at next years World Series will mention how nervous everybody is. Theyll say that nothing can prepare you for the feeling of being in the World Series, and that itll take a few innings before the butterflies settle down. Perhaps this is even true! If it is, it would be reasonable to hypothesize that baseball players would prefer to be nervous among friends, in a home park, than nervous among enemies. Perhaps this amplifies the difference between home and road. Perhaps this explains why the advantage in Game 1 is bigger than the advantage in Game 3 (or in Game 7), when the players have become accustomed to the brighter lights of the World Series and it has gone back to being just baseball.2. Momentum, or something like itIf a team loses one game, it has been about 53 percent likely to lose the next -- not a particularly big difference, especially because the team that lost is most likely a little bit worse (which is why they lost).Overall, the World Series spread is right in line with the normal home/road gap: If a team lost a game and then got to play the next one at home -- either returning home (as from Game 2 to Game 3) or staying home (as from Game 1 to 2, Game 3 to 4, etc.) -- it won about 50 percent of its games. If a team lost a game and then had to play a game on the road, it won only 43 percent of its games. But one important exception: Home teams that lose Game 1 have come back to win 22 of 34 Games 2s.3. The advantage has a powerful subconscious, or barely conscious, effect all by itself Perhaps, knowing that theyre the underdogs, teams who start on the road enter the series with a sense of frustration, resignation, self-pity. Were getting extremely speculative now. But consider this quote from pitcher Chris Carpenter, talking about the 2013 World Series that his Cardinals played against the Red Sox:I think its very important to grab that home field. Last year we saw it play out in Boston. They had the opportunity to play more games there than we did in St. Louis.That quote came after the Series was over. The Series went six games. The Red Sox and Cardinals played exactly as many home games as each other, three apiece. And yet, We saw it play out. Carpenter describes it as though the Red Soxs numerical advantage manifested anyway, as though it were a factor well before Game 7. For some reason or another, it has been.In 2003, Bud Selig had a chance to fix the way home-field advantage is determined, and he tried to fix the All-Star Game instead. For the latter, he failed; the All-Star Game is played with no more competitive imperative now, and ratings have continued to sink. In the four years before Selig changed the rules, the All-Star Game drew 59 percent as many viewers as the first game of the same seasons World Series. In the four years after, that share dropped to 52 percent. In the past four years, its down to 43 percent. Nothing got fixed.Its wise and obvious that baseball would undo the change, and wiser and more obvious that theyd also find a less arbitrary way of awarding home-field advantage, an important thing. Its not necessarily clear that awarding it to the team with the best record is any more just, though; the difference between the leagues remains staggering, as the National League had a worse winning percentage in interleague play this year (.450) than the Angels had overall. It might actually be more just to award home field to whichever league has the best interleague record, though that would be a lot less convincing in years where the difference between leagues is slim.Whether it is or isnt perfect is maybe less important than that it makes sense. Bud Selig surely knew when he made his decision that he wasnt actually going to change the way that the All-Star Game was played; he was going to change the way the All-Star Game was watched. Whether or not the best record truly deserves home-field advantage, it at least makes sense. It gives the audience something it can believe in. Its the fan-friendly solution to the dilemma that Selig skipped over.Yeezy 350 China . During the athletes parade, the 23-strong Ukrainian team was represented by a lone flagbearer in an apparent protest at the presence of Russian troops in Ukraines Crimean peninsula. Yeezy 350 Sale . Only three players drafted by NHL clubs were included on the Czech selection camp roster on Wednesday. Those players were Dallas Stars 2012 first-rounder Radek Faksa, Winnipeg Jets 2013 fourth-rounder Jan Kostalek and Phoenix Coyotes 2012 seventh-rounder Marek Langhamer. https://www.cheapyeezy350outlet.com/ .Y. - Nelson Mandela will be honoured by the New York Yankees with a plaque in Monument Park. Yeezy 350 Fake .Y. -- Sabres forward Drew Stafford has witnessed plenty of turmoil during his eight seasons in Buffalo. Yeezy 350 Wholesale .J. -- Pitcher Carl Pavano is retiring after 14 major league seasons.(STATS) -- Theres no doubt November is calling because it takes defense to win a championship.And there was plenty of it shining with STATS FCS Top 25 teams on Saturday.The highlights:- No. 2 Jacksonville State returned a program-record three interceptions for touchdowns -- by Jaylen Hill, Joel McCandless and Reggie Hall -- to beat Eastern Kentucky 24-7 in the Ohio Valley Conference;- No. 4 North Dakota State gained three turnovers in the games final eight minutes to preserve a 21-13 win at No. 12 Western Illinois in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. The Bison also blocked two field goals;- No. 7 South Dakota State corralled six sacks and turned two takeaways into touchdowns in a 24-10 win over No. 13 Youngstown State which gave the Jackrabbits sole possession of first place in the MVFC;- No. 9 Charleston Southern surrendered only 102 yards to Presbyterian in a 38-3 rout in the Big South Conference. It was the fewest the Buccaneers have allowed against an FCS opponent;- No. 16 Villanova totaled nine sacks and forced a pair of turnovers in a 24-13 CAA win over No. 23 Albany. Linebacker Ed Shockley had 3? sacks and a fumble recovery;- No. 17 Coastal Carolina beat Central Connecticut State 33-25 as linebacker Alex Scearce had three takeaways, scoring touchdowns on an interception and a fumble recovery;- No. 24 Stony Brook made it 10 straight quarters without allowing a touchdown while beating Delaware 28-3 in the CAA. Defensive end John Haggart dominated with 11 tackles, 5 1/2 tackles for loss and three sacks while forcing three fumbles and recovering one.The regular season is down to its final four weekends in most conferences (all but the two HBCUs, the MEAC and SWAC), and while teams usually just outpunch each other with offense, the ones that go far in the FCS playoffs (think North Dakota State) are adept at making game-turning plays on defense.---=SECOND AND 10=Ten more observations from the FCS weekend:1.) Any of the top four teams -- Sam Houston State, Jacksonville State, Eastern Washington and North Dakota State -- have legitimate claim to the nations No. 1 ranking despite Sam Houstons lopsided first-place vote total last week. Whats been most impressive about the Bearkats is what they are doing to opponents in the first half of games. They have outscored teams 122-24 in the first quarter and 227-51 by halftime. They were up 24-0 at the break in a 38-21 win at Nicholls on Saturday.2.) The team of the week is Northern Arizona, which defeated No. 10 Montana 45-34 for its third straight win. The Lumberjacks (4-4, 3-2 Big Sky) never trailed in the game and built a 45-20 lead through three quarters against a visiting Griz team that had scored a combined 135 points over their previous two games. Lefty NAU quarterback Blake Kemp threw four touchdowns in the first half.3.) The comeback of the day also came from a Big Sky team, Weber State, which scored 23 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to rally past Southern Utah, 37-36, and remain unbeaten in conference play. The Wildcats (5-2, 4-0) didnt lead until Jadrian Clark and Darryl Denby connected for a 60-yard touchdown pass with 31 seconds left and Taylor Hintze kicked the extra point. Coach Jay Hills squad knows what its like to be on the other end of a fourth-quarter rally, as they blew a 21-point lead in the final 10? minutes against South Dakota and lost 52-49 in two overtimes on Sept. 10.4.) Three-week layoffs didnt slow two ranked teams -- a good sign considering the odd midseason scenario. No. 9 Charleston Southern routed Presbyterian 38-3 as quarterbacks Steve Bucenell and Robert Mitchell had big games. No. 22 Grambling State hammered Mississippi Valley State 59-10 as DeVante Kincade threw four first-half touchdowns and Maartez Carter totaled 189 all-purpose yards and scored twice.dddddddddddd5.) Saint Francis is 3-0 in the Northeast Conference for the first time because of its defense. The Red Flash (5-3) have surrendered 10 or fewer points five times, including in each conference win. Jermaine Ponder and Jalen Wells had interceptions of Duquesne quarterback Dillon Buechel in Friday nights 14-10 win -- a rematch of last years regular-season-ending game that decided the NEC title. The Red Flash come right back next Saturday with a big matchup at Sacred Heart (6-1, 1-1).6.) Surprise, surprise, the Ivy League co-leaders are Harvard and Penn. OK, no surprise at all. At least one of them has won the title in nine straight seasons and all but two seasons since 2000. Penn will host this years showdown on Nov. 12.7.) While Murray States Connor Mitchell was the kicker of the weekend with six field goals in a 40-38 win at No. 15 Eastern Illinois, Columbia freshman Oren Milstein kicked three field goals in a 9-7 win over Dartmouth. Hes provided all the Lions points in both wins this season, also kicking five field goals in a 15-13 win over Wagner on Oct. 8.8.) The hottest wide receiver in the FCS is not Eastern Washingtons Cooper Kupp -- for a change. Karel Hamilton became Samfords all-time leader in receiving yards (3,166) with a 208-yard game against Western Carolina. Over the Southern Conferences team last three games, Hamilton has caught 35 passes for 539 yards and six touchdowns.9.) Opposing teams will have to think twice about scheduling Stetson for Homecoming. The Hatters have been the spoiler three times this season. Saturdays win was the most scintillating, 30-24 at Campbell in their first-ever overtime game. Star safety Donald Payne blocked a Camels field goal attempt in OT and followed Jed Boudreaux down the field after his teammate scooped up the ball and ran toward the far end zone. A pair of Camels jumped on Boudreauxs back inside the 5-yard line, so he lateraled the ball to Payne, who covered the final two yards for the winning score. Payne finished with 13 tackles, pushing his career total to 502.10.) Delawares struggles are a puzzle, but its certain coach K.C. Keeler should never have been fired after the 2012 season and Dave Brock wasnt the answer. The Blue Hens are 19-23 since the start of the 2013 season and their 28-3 loss to Stony Brook on Saturday (in interim coach Dennis Dottin-Carters first game) was their fifth straight, marking the longest losing streak since the 1939 team dropped seven in a row. The Blue Hens post is coveted, so the nationwide search needs to produce a coach who will get a quick turnaround.---=A LOOK AHEAD=Next Saturdays FCS schedule is full of important conference matchups, led by Montana at Eastern Washington and Weber State at North Dakota in the Big Sky, North Dakota State at Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley, Eastern Illinois at Jacksonville State in the Ohio Valley, Saint Francis at Sacred Heart in the Northeast, Fordham at Lehigh in the Patriot League and San Diego at Marist in the Pioneer Football League.Also: Big South, Gardner-Webb at Liberty; CAA, Stony Brook at New Hampshire; Ivy, Harvard at Dartmouth; MEAC, South Carolina State at Hampton; Missouri Valley, South Dakota State at Illinois State and Western Illinois at South Dakota; NEC, Bryant at Duquesne; Southland, Central Arkansas at Southeastern Louisiana; and SWAC, Southern at Alcorn State and Prairie View A&M at Jackson State.The FCS win total against the FBS stands at 10 (tied for fourth-most in a single season) as Samford visits Mississippi State and Wagner goes to UMass. 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